China due a correction, argues Bokobza of SocGen
A global economic slowdown is on the horizon, but while the US and Europe appear to be at the forefront of this, China is due for a correction too, says Alain Bokobza, head of global asset allocation at Societe Generale.
"A global slowdown [will] not necessarily be a big recession or a long-lasting recession, if that will come," says the Paris-based analyst. "Our economics team say [there is] a 40% probability of a mild recession in the US."
He notes that the US Federal Reserve is prepared to provide "very ample liquidity to the banking sector" in the form of cheap capital, which will help to buoy US lenders.
Meanwhile, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, another global economic flash point, is also fueling fears of a global recession.
Bokobza points out that Europe is trying to manage the problem with the creation of a European Financial Stabilisation Fund to provide "firepower" to recapitalise weaker banks in the region, he says. "They're trying to manage systemic risk."
As for the future of the common currency, "we still see some possibilities for the euro to remain as a currency, [and] for the monetary union to stay alive, [but] with rule changes".
But he stresses that China is not immune to problems in the US and Europe and has issues of its own, adds Bokobza. He co-authored a report, The Dragon Which Played With Fire, that was released in January this year.
Domestic stimulus money injected into the Chinese economy over the past few years has resulted in growth, he says, which in turn has led to higher prices for commodities and food.
"This led to an inflation level which is unacceptable," Bokobza told AsianInvestor , who suggests that inflation has likely peaked at about 6% - far higher than the Chinese government is comfortable with.
He says a further slowdown in China's economic growth is coming, but adds that a hard landing is not a given. "I think the [central bank] will be giving some liquidity to the markets, or to the economy... but it will not be a huge relaxation of monetary policy."
He also disagrees with market watchers who believe that China, and more broadly Asia, have decoupled from Western economies.
"I think that is a very dangerous game," he says, noting that China is a large buyer of commodities sourced worldwide, including from emerging markets. "The fact that China is slowing down, and should continue to slow down for some time, is very bad for the commodities market," he notes.