After two tenures, AsianInvestor's 2021 Standout CIO Jang Dong-hun looks back on the past six years at Korea's Poba with satisfaction.
Perhaps this is why a number of fund houses have recently urged investors to stay invested. Over the past week or so, several managers have held press conferences to assure the public that the market outlook couldnÆt be better.
ôWe are in the midst of the best economic expansion since the early 1970s, and it is set to continue,ö says Christopher Probyn, chief economist of State Street Global Advisors. His economics team forecasts global GDP growth could reach as high as 7% this year, a significantly higher number than the average 4.9% growth measured yearly since 1970.
Successive bull runs in China have contributed to investorsÆ cloud of suspicion that has led to selling pressure. Shanghai Stock Exchange recorded a 55.7% gain for its A-share market since the beginning of the year. Results from the B-share market are even more surprising û 127.6% compared to the whole yearÆs return from 2006 at 110.5%.
But fund managers say these run-ups have come from deep troughs and donÆt by themselves mean that share prices have spiralled out of control. ôDespite strong performance,ö says Mark Konyn, CEO at RCM Asset Management, ôwe are still seeing reasonable valuations in Asia-Pacific markets, certainly judged by historical standards.ö
This is best observed in Singapore and Malaysia, which have both been lagging markets since the Asian financial crisis. SingaporeÆs Straight Times Index and MalaysiaÆs KL Composite Index have delivered year-to-date returns at 19.4% and 27.8% respectively, outperforming together against the regional MSCI Asia Pacific at 7.8%, and the global MSCI World at 6.9%.
As for China, Konyn adds: ôThe June market correction didnÆt have a significant impact, either at the regional level or the global level.ö Stock prices have continued to rise to new peaks thanks to support from high trading activity û indeed, a singleÆs day market turnover in mainland China could well exceed the total trading activity from the rest of Asia. RegulatorsÆ attempts to nip a bubble in the bud, such as by the introduction of a stamp duty, have caused only temporary tremors.
The bumps are now frequent but fund managers urge investors to look beyond the next one. ôThe short term volatility just that û short term,ö declares Peter Wong, executive director at HSBC, which has recently announced a new $440 million fund to pump up the bankÆs participation in China.
His colleague, the new fundÆs manager, Richard Wong, investor director at Halbis Capital Management, explains there are reasons to expect A-share valuations to rise further: robust domestic consumption, increasing inward investments, rising Chinese income and retail sales growth û all against a backdrop of mild inflation at 2-3% and an appreciating renminbi. His growth forecast for this yearÆs China economy is set at 9% or higher.
Census experts say China's population will start to decline at least five years earlier than expected - investors are being warned to keep a weather eye on inflation and structural shifts.
Family offices in Hong Kong want to do more impact investing, but the paucity of ESG talent and the lack of uniform reporting standards are real issues for them.
An impending series of interest rate increases and the deterioration in relations between Russia and the West over Ukraine have worried investors in recent weeks, hence the volatility in US equities in particular.
New Zealand has sufficiently satisfied US national security regulations to be granted temporary exemption from restrictions on investing in sensitive sectors.